Quarterback Solution?

Before the pre-season started, there was all sorts of speculation about an impending deal between the Dolphins and the Broncos. Orton to Miami was what was being touted. Kyle Orton would be shipped down to the the Dolphins for a 2nd round pick and the Broncos would move forward with last season's first rounder Tim Tebow.

The talks then started to fall apart when the Dolphins would only offer a 3rd rounder and didn't want to renegotiate Orton's contract. With no deal in place, everything went back to the way it was before. Orton leading the first team in Denver and Chad Henne leading the squad in Miami (although training camp hecklers booed him voraciously while chanting for Orton).

Kyle Orton is a decent QB who has the support of the front-office as well as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Lloyd and new (conservative) head coach John Fox. All of that has relegated the talented but raw Tebow to the 2nd, 3rd or even 4th string. Lloyd was the first player to come to Orton's defense over Tebow. Stating how much the organization would be. Orton is a very efficient QB. Last year was clearly the best season in his career. He put up great numbers, yet the team went 3-10 under him. He's really the best choice for the organization? I mean it's pretty simple, you know what you get from him. With Tim Tebow though, you really don't know what you'll get.

I was surprised Elway and the front-office left Tebow's side so quickly. I mean wasn't Elway a strong-armed, mobile QB who was frustrated with a cookie-cutter offense under Dan Reeves and Wade Phillips. Wasn't his life chanegd when Mike Shanahan arrived and loosened the reigns a bit and let Elway improvise more? I'm not saying Tebow could be another Elway, I just think he provides the offense more options than the stationary Orton. As for John Fox, I think he's okay. I do think he's a little overrated, and simply didn't want another season of a green QB after Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore last year with the Panthers. But is sticking with Orton really the answer?

I think I have a solution that will benefit all parties. Rekindle talks with the Dolphins. Instead of offering Orton, offer Tebow. It's obvious he'll never get his shot in Denver. Elway and Fox aren't willing to put their reputations on the line and take a chance with the kid. They should ship him off to Miami for whatever they can get (I mean isn't even getting a 3rd or 4th rounder worth it for a 3rd or 4th string QB). Miami could then utilize him and play even more Wildcat. Think of the varied looks he could give them on offense. I mean they do a bunch of Wildcat packages in already. Plus think about the possibilities of Tebow standing next to Reggie Bush in the backfield. It would be a matchup nightmare. Plus, Tebow is basically a god in Florida. The merchandise would fly off the shelves (I mean in his limited role for the Broncos, Tebow's jersey is a Top 5 seller in the league). The Dolphins could easily build for the future (they won't be contenders this year anyway, what do they have to lose?) while generating buzz and merchandise sales. It could be an easy win all around. The Broncos get to start Orton and try to win more than the 3 games he won for them last year, Tebow gets a chance to start in the NFL. Makes sense to me.

Madden Bowl 2011

While in Dallas for the Maxim Super Bowl party, a co-worker was able to score tickets to this year's Madden Bowl. If you know me, you know I'm a Madden junkie, so this invite was a big deal.

As we walked in, Larry Fitzgerald was being interviewed by the entrance. I instantly knew this was going to be a great night. I gawked and geeked out as I saw a ton of NFL stars. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Chad Ochocinco, Mark Sanchez, Matt Forte, Tony Gonzalez, Marshawn Lynch and Josh Freeman were just a small sampling of the current stars in attendance. NFL Legends such as Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin also were in attendance. Both had huge mobs of folks around them, so I couldn't get close to them at all.

The highlight of the night for me had to be when I recognized Jason Witten hanging out. I told my buddies "I wear his jersey every Sunday, I have to go say hello." Upon introducing myself and explaining who I was and how big a fan I was, who should turn around? None other than Demarcus Ware. He turns and says "Shit, you wear an 82 every Sunday, how about some love for #94." My jaw nearly hit the ground, I was in awe. My favorite offensive and defensive Cowboy stars.

After agreeing to take a picture with me, I exchanged cards with their agents and got Demarcus on the list for the Maxim party. I don't think he came, but I did trade emails with both he and his agent. All in all, a night I won't soon forget.

Premature Call

Last year, I prematurely called Peyton Manning the greatest quarterback of our generation, if not the greatest quarterback of all time. Yeah, I was picking the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and maybe basking in the bright light that Manning was emanating. Not only was I wrong about that game, but in retrospect I may have been wrong on my call on Manning.

Peyton's pick in the Super Bowl hasn't changed my mind. Nor has his recent string of 11 picks in his last 3 games. What has changed my mind is the excellence of Tom Brady.

I've heard the talking heads the last few weeks trip over themselves defending Manning. "Too many players injured", "he's playing with backups", are two of the most common excuses. While some of that may be true, a transcendent quarterback should be able to overcome a poor supporting cast. Manning historically has been blessed with a much better supporting cast than Brady. Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Faulk, Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai were all stars. Besides Moss and Welker (who was fully developed as a receiver on the Pats) and one very good season from Corey Dillon, Brady has done it with a group of youngsters and castoffs. Deion Branch is a system receiver. He failed as a Seahawk and is enjoying success again as a Patriot. Ben Watson as well. He hasn't played nearly as well on the Browns as he did on the Pats. So while yes, this season with injuries to Garcon, Collie and Clark have hampered Manning's and the Colts effectiveness, hasn't Brady played a whole career with an inferior cast.

Brady just chugs away in a one-dimensional offense. His feature backs have been a collection of retreads, never weres and not ready yet players. Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon (the one star, at least for one season), old Fred Taylor, Lawrence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Danny Woodhead and BenJarvis Green-Ellis. Not to belittle any of them, but who would you rather have, and of those guys or Marshal Faulk (future HOFer), Edgerrin James (best back in the league for a 3 year period), or Joseph Addai (pro-Bowler). Seems like a no-brainer.

Then of course, there are the big games. Brady has won 3 Super Bowls (to Mannings 1) and lost one he should have won. If not for one surreal Tyree helmet catch we'd be talking about Brady in the same breath that people talk about Joe Montana. Manning has a history of choking in the big games (maybe Manning's pick in the Super Bowl changed my mind a little).

It's hard to disregard the stats. And if you look at them, Manning will break just about everyone of Favre's records. Statistically he'll be the best QB ever. But lets take a snap shot of this season. Manning has thrown for almost 700 more yards than Brady, and has 3 more touchdowns, but he also has 11 more picks... 11. Brady is likely to throw for 4,000 yards again this season. It would be the 4th such season he has done so. Manning is getting ready to top 4,000 for a 10th season. That number is staggering. Manning though has been blessed with a vastly superior supporting cast (as already noted).

Of course, all of this is coming on a day right after Brady eviscerated the Jets for 4TDs no picks and vaulted the Pats (in my eyes) over everyone else as the leader in any Super Bowl discussion. The same week that Manning threw 4 picks against the 3-8 Cowboys. Then Manning made excuses about injuries, his cast and hoped to get some help soon. I can't ever imagine Brady having a conference like that. He would simply raise his game and win with the cast he has... hasn't he done that since he got into the lineup.

Brady is a winner, one of the greatest of all time. One who wins with whatever talent surrounds him. For that, I have to go back in the time machine and shelve that talk about Peyton as the greatest of all time and at the best call it a push, until the end of their careers. But leave with this. Brady's post season record 14-4. Manning 9-9. Hmmm... makes you think.

Observations and Predictions... Week 6

Last week I was 6-8... that, like my beloved Cowboys, was simply awful.

On to the picks. Falcons over the Eagles. Steelers over the Browns. Bears over the Seahawks. Packers beat the Dolphins. Giants beat the Lions. Saints over the Bucs. Chargers over the Rams. Texans beat the Chiefs. Ravens over the Patriots. Niners over the Raiders (I mean, they cant keep losing... right). Jets beat the Broncos. Vikings beat the Cowboys (it pains me to say). Colts over the Redskins. Titans over the Jags.

Observations and Predictions... Week 5

7 and 7 last week... yuck

On to this weeks picks.

Bears over the Panthers. Bengals over the Bucs. Lions over the Rams. Texans beat the Giants. Ravens over Broncos. Falcons over Browns. Colts beat the Chiefs. Jags over the Bills. Packers beat the Skins. Saints over Cards. Cowboys beat the Titans. Chargers over the Raiders. Niners over the Eagles. Vikings over the Jets.

Observations and Predictions... Week 4

Another 11-5 last week. Running late, so here's what we have.

Steelers over Ravens. Falcons over Niners. Jet over Bills. Saints over Panthers. Titans over Broncos. Bengals over Browns. PAckers over Lions. Seahawks over Rams. Colts over Jags. Texans over Raiders. Chargers over Cards. Eagles over REdskins. Bears over Giants and Patriots over the Dolphins.

Observations and Predictions... Week 3

I went 11-5 last week. The Cowboys continued to disappoint me. OK, I'm short on time so here are the picks of the week.

The Bengals on the road beat the Panthers. The Cincy defense trumps a rookie QB making his debut. Pats over the Bills. The Bills have looked punchless. I don't expect Poo Poo Fitzpatrick to change things. Niners win one on the road over the surprising Chiefs. Titans squeak by the Giants. I expect a big day from Vince Young in NY. Ravens over the Browns in Baltimore. Steelers beat the Bucs in the battle of the unbeatens. Their defense is too good for the young Bucs. It will be close. Saints beat the Falcons in a shootout. Expect lots of passing yards as both teams have injuries to their running games. Vikings trounce the Lions. The Cowboys rescue their season by beating the Texans... i hope. Eagles go on the road and beat the Jags. Vick continues to impress. Redskins beat the Rams in St. Louis. Colts over the ailing Broncos. Cards in a close one over the Raiders. Chargers whoop on the Seahawks. Jets beat the surprising Dolphins in Miami. Packers over the Bears on Monday Night.

Observations & Predictions... Week 2

What a crazy opening weekend. I went a craptastic 8-8. Hopefully I have a better showing this week. Speaking about crappy Week 1 performances, what the hell happened to my Cowboys? How does Alex Barron still have a job this week? The Boys, Colts, Niners and Falcons let me down. The Bolts let me down big time. KC looked a lot more impressive (especially on defense) than I expected. On to this weeks picks.

Performers of the Week
QB:Peyton Manning: Huge effort in a loss. 433 yards and 3 scores.
WR: Miles Austin: Proves last year was no fluke. 146 yards and 1 TD.
RB: Arian Foster: HUGE. 231 yards and 3 TDs.
TE: Dallas Clark. It wasn't a huge day for TE's but Clark had his typical strong day. 80 yards and a score.
DEF:Seahawks: Started the season right in shutting down the Niners.
ST: Chiefs: Really set the tone for the game with a punt return for a score.

Steelers at Titans should be a real old fashioned slugfest. Without Big Ben I don't think the Steelers have enough offensive firepower to handle the Titans. Expect another solid day from Chris Johnson (no surprise). Titans in a tight one. The Bengals pull out a close one over the Ravens. Benson runs well against this defense (237 yards a year ago). Eagles trounce the Lions. The Vick should start supporters get more ammunition. Falcons over the Cards. Matt Ryan picks apart the Cards D with a big game. Vikings in another defensive battle beat the Dolphins. Favre continues to connect with his new favorite target in Shiancoe. Chiefs go to 2-0 and beat the Browns in a very entertaining game. Jones and Charles will go crazy. Panthers run all over the Bucs. Packers have a huge day throwing the ball against the Bills. My Boys win one at home against the Bears. Peppers will be a handful for Doug Free, but Romo has a big day against a suspect secondary. Watch Dez Bryant in the slot. The Broncos pull one out at home against the resurgent Seahawks. The Raiders win a close one at home over the Rams. Chargers even their record against the Jags. The Pats keep the Jets winless and put Rex in panic mode. Texans beat the Redskins at home. Another big day for Foster. On Sunday Night, the Colts take out their week one frustrations on the Giants. Expect Manning to have a huge day (if I phrase it that way I'm guaranteed that either Manning will).

Expect the Saints to whoop up on the struggling Niners.

Fantasy Picks of the Week
QB: Michael Vick-Expect a very big day both running and passing against the Lions.
WR: Andre Johnson-Didn't have a big week one. Expect that to change against the Skins.
RB: Darren McFadden-May have rescued his career in week one. Look for his strong play to continue.
TE: Tony Gonzalez-Will shred the Cards underneath.
DEF: Philly-The eagles will dominate the Lions on both sides of the ball.
ST: Denver-I expect this to be a clsoe one. Prater owners will be happy.

Observations and Predictions... Week 1

Here it is. After months of waiting, the NFL season kicks off tonight. Every team starts off on equal footing and is a contender... at least for one week (OK, maybe not the Bucs, but you get what I'm saying). Without further ado, here are the picks.

Thursday Night
The NFC Championship Game rematch will not disappoint. I think it will be a back and forth game with the Saints puling out a win in the 4th Quarter. Peterson will play inspired football, but the Vikings secondary will have a tough time dealing with Brees and his receiving corps.

Sunday
Oakland at Tennessee will be a tighter game than people expect. The Titans will win on a late TD run by Chris Johnson. The Giants will exact some measure of revenge (in a close defensive battle) on the Panthers for the severe ass-kicking they handed them at the end of last year. The Colts beat the very game Texans. This game will be a shoot-out, but the seasoned Colts put the upstart Texans in their place. Denver behind strong play from Kyle Orton gets the jump on the Jags. My upset of the week, has the Falcons beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh. A healthy Michael Turner, plus the absence of Big Ben will hurt the Steelers. The Dolphins head up to Buffalo and escape with a win, luckily for them it'll be warm and sunny, so weather won't really play a factor.Watch out for that Dolphins offense, its very capable of being a big play offense this season. Chad Henne will have a new best friend (target) in Brandon Marshall. The Bears dominate the not ready yet Lions. Although Jahvid Best will impress, the young Lions still have some work to do. The game of the week pits two playoff teams from a year ago against each other. The Pats should win one at home against the Bengals. Brady and Moss (and Welker and Edelman and Hernandez) will prove to be too much for the Cincy secondary. In the Not Game of the Week (or the Toilet Bowl) the Browns head down to Tampa Bay and come away with a win. The Niners pick up a big division win on the road in whipping the Seahawks. The Packers start the year the right way with a win on the road in Philly. Rodgers is a stud. The Cards beat the young Rams. It will be close, and Bradford will provide thrills, but the Cards veterans shine through.

Sunday Night
Dallas goes on the road to Washington and comes away with a win. Shanahan's team will play tough, but the Boys are stacked.

Monday Night
The Jets get the season started right at home in beating the Ravens. Expect ugly defensive football. In the second game of the night, the Chargers (my lock of the week) take their act on the road and beat the snot out of the Chiefs.

Fantasy Football Players of the Week
QB: Derek Anderson-With his coaches rep on the line, he steps up and lets people know the post-Warner offense will be okay.
WR: Johnny Knox-Big day for the Bears big threat. The Lions secondary resembles swiss cheese.
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew-The lone bright spot in the Jags dreadful performance against the Broncos.
TE: JerMichael Finley: The Eagles struggled against tightends last year. A REturning Stewart Bradley should help, but he'll take a few weeks to round back into form.
DEF: Miami-Will be aggressive against the punchless (save Spiller) Bills.
ST: Titans-Their return game struggled last year. I imagine Fisher wants to set a tone that it won't struggle again this year.

Till next week...

Almost Time

With my first of many fantasy drafts this week, and Madden already finding itself in constant rotation on the PS3, I realized it's almost time for football season. Time for my wacky predictions and fantasy football prognostications.

I'll have a much more comprehensive football preview next week, but I wanted to touch on a few things regarding the game I love before my huge post next week. Madden 11 is amazing. The best Madden game since 2005 and the dawn of the hit stick. I would suggest shutting off the gameflow and going with the conventional method of playcalling, but besides that, video game perfection. I'm really excited for the Dallas Cowboys this season. Offense and defense should both be top 5 in the league. I think it has a chance to be a very special season. I know the offense has looked bad so far this preseason, but I have no doubts all will be perfect by the time they kick off against the Skins. Also, here are a few fantasy football projections: Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo will be the top 2 fantasy QB's. Beanie Wells will be a top 10 back. Malcolm Floyd will have people in San Diego saying Vincent who? Tomlinson will have a nice bounce back season for the Jets. Darren Aromashadu will turn into a Top 15 (if not higher) wideout in Martz's system.

That's all for now. Till next week.

Play Ball

One of my 3 favorite sports days (Super Bowl Sunday and the first day of the NCAA basketball tournament being the other) is tomorrow (and Monday). The start of a new baseball season. The one day when everyone has the same record, and every team has hope (even the Pirates and Indians). So I figured before the Yanks started their title defense on the road against the Sox I would make my picks for each division and the major awards.

AL East.
The Yankees should take the East. Simply put they are the most complete team in the AL. While the Sox made some nice moves to upgrade their defense (Scutaro/Beltre/Cameron) they simply don't have enough to compete the Yankee juggernaut. The Sox rotation (amongst the best in the game) should land them the wild card. Rays will be improved and fight the Sox for second all season.

AL Central
I like the division to end up very similarly to the way it did last year. The Twins have great pitching, but I caution how their new park will play. The Tigers will be good again and should be right in the thick of it to the last week of the season. The dark horse here could be the White Sox, I really like their pitching staff, and their offense could be really good. I do hate Ozzie Guillen though, so I refuse to pick them as the division winners.

AL West
The Mariners should be much improved on offense, and if Cliff Lee is healthy they have a formidadle 1-2 punch with he and King Felix. The Angels take a little step back, and the Rangers should be a little better than a year ago.

AL MVP: Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL Rookie of the Year: Scott Sizemore

NL East
The Phillies are the most complete team in the NL. They should be able to win a close division race over the Braves (who will take the wild card). Braves sport a nice rotation and a good looking offense, especially if Heyward delivers. I also expect the Nats to be much improved.

NL Central
Cards should run away with it. No other team is even worth mentioning.

NL West
Will be a tight division all year. I expect the young Giants behind their great pitching to win the division. Rockies, and Dodgers right behind them.

NL MVP: Pablo Sandoval
NL CY Young: Roy Halladay
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward

I have the Phillies once again playing the Yankees in the World Series. I also have the Yanks winning the World Series again. It should be a great season... Play Ball!

Final Four 2010

While I would love to sit down here and type out winners for every game, I'll simply make my picks for the Final Four, Championship game and eventual champ with Final game score.

In the Midwest, I like Kansas. I have that bracket running pretty true with only Michigan St. beating Maryland for a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. I also have Georgetown beating Ohio State to get a great Elite 8 matchup with Kansas.

Here in the East, I like West Virginia. Their stoicism as they were announced as a 2 seed spoke volumes to me. This is a team that felt like they were passed over for a one seed and are pissed. If I was the rest of this region I would be afraid... very afraid. I have a few upsets in this bracket, with Washington making it to the Elite 8. I also have Missouri over Clemson in a mini-upset. Kentucky could have a rough 2nd round game against the winner of Texas/Wake. Which should soften them up just enough to leave them vulnerable for the Mountaineers of West Virginia.

Out West, I like Syracuse. I'm tempted to go Kansas State because of Syracuse's injury woes, but I don't love K State. I have a couple upsets here in Florida State over Gonzaga and Minnesota over Xavier. The rest of the bracket plays out pretty true. I think the Butler/Syracuse Elite 8 game could be a real slugfest. Don't sleep on Butler. They could be a big darkhorse.

In the South, I like Duke (was there ever a question I'd pick Duke). My upset specials are Louisville over Cal and Siena over the hurting Purdue. I have Baylor beating Villanova in the Sweet 16 for a shot at Duke in the Elite 8.

In the Final 4, I like Kansas over the Orangemen of Syracuse, and Duke over West Virginia. I think Kansas' experience trumps Syracuse's zone. Duke's big 3 (Smith, Singler and Scheyer) prove to much for Butler to overcome. In the Championship game I like Kansas over Duke in a close, well-played contest, 83-77.

What A Season

What a season 2009 proved to be. My wife went into the hospital to deliver our son on September 10, the same night the Steelers kicked off the season against the Titans. We came home on Sunday the 13th, just in time for the Cowboys kick off against the Bucs. The Cowboys went on to win the opener, then the NFC East, and their first playoff game in 13 seasons. While the image to the left was taken while the Vikings smacked around the Cowboys in the playoffs, it was still a great season. I think next season will be even better.

Congrats to the Saints and the Colts for a well played Super Bowl. New Orleans played like a true champ all season. It'll be interesting to see them defend their crown next season. Which I look forward to watching with my son, daughter (even if she is playing her DS) and wife while he have famous buffalo wings. I can't wait.

Super QB

With the Super Bowl fast approaching, I’d be remiss if I didn’t write a piece on the person who I think is the greatest football player I will ever see. He also happens to be playing in the Super Bowl on Sunday. His name is Peyton Manning.
What he’s done since entering the NFL is simply astonishing. Peyton has shattered records, and by the time his career is done he will own every important statistical record of all-time. All while playing in a well-balanced offense (save for this season) that isn’t generally predicated on the pass.

Fox NFL comentator Daryl Johnston recently said “Peyton is the closest thing to a player coach that the NFL has. He has such command of the offense, and an almost total recall of defensive fronts. It’s incredible to watch him on a Friday after practice. After the first team offense is done, he works individually with the skill players and goes through what their read and react scenarios will be on offense. No other quaterback in the NFL does that. At least none that I’ve ever seen.”

I’ve been blessed as a football fan to have seen some of the all-time great quarterbacks. Joe Montana, John Elway, Brett Favre used to be ranked No. 1 to 3 in my book. I also always had a soft spot in my heart for Warren Moon and Dan Marino. Great statisticals QB’s who never won the big game (and therefore in my eyes eliminates them from greatest of all-time discussions—you gotta win the big one). In my opinion, Peyton surpasses them all already. I’ve never seen one player so thoroughly command the game from his position.

I use to believe that Jerry Rice was the greatest football player ever (no one will ever catch his records—yards, TD’s, receptions—even in this passing age), but If his team wins on Sunday, and I’m predicting they will (35-31), Peyton will be the greatest football player of all time.

Observations and Predictions... SuperBowl

I skipped over picking the Pro-Bowl, because who really cares. I guess I was cheering for the NFC as the Cowboys have a bunch of guys in the game.

My pick for the Super Bowl is the Indianapolis Colts. I expect a well played close shootout. Something like 35-31. I think the Saints will gamely put up points, but their defense relies on turnovers and mistakes from their opposition. The Colts simply don't make any mistakes on offense. It'll be close, but I expect Peyton to raise his second Vince Lombardi trophy.

Observations and Predictions... Championship Games

I went all C teams last week (Chargers, Colts, Cards and Cowboys)... needless to say I went an awful 1-3.

This weeks I'm going Colts and Vikings. Both games will be close. Vikings versus Saints will be a shotout, but I think the Vikings defense gives them a slight edge. Colts simply have too much for the Jets.

Observations and Predictions... Divisional playoffs

Its minutes before kickoff and I realized I forget to post my picks. Last week I went 3-1.

Here we go:

Cardinals over the Saints. Should be another high powered shootout.
Colts over Ravens. Tight defensive battle.
Chargers over Jets. Bolts are simply too hot right now.
Cowboys over the Vikings. The Boys D is playing too well for the Vikings struggling offense.

Observations and Predictions... The Wild Card

Oh, it's that joyous time of year again. January is here and it's time for the post season. So don your squads jersey (apologies to those whose teams have been eliminated) and get ready for the raucous ride that is the NFL Playoffs. This week provides us with a trio of games that are being replayed from a week ago, although all the games will be more hotly contested.

Let's start with my beloved Dallas Cowboys who host the Eagles in the house that Jerry built. The Boys looked dominant on both sides of the ball last week in blanking the Birds 24-0 last Sunday. That game decided the NFC East crowd as well as home-field for this game. Had the game been in Philly I would have picked the Eagles, but we all know I never pick against my Boys. While I expect the Eagles to blitz a little more (they only blitzed about 40% of the time last week) I think the Cowboys have their number. Romo has been using quick bubble screens, slants and check downs to get rid of the ball when the Eagles come with their vaunted Double A Gap Blitz. The Cowboys are simply bigger along both lines and should be able to wear the Eagles down with their 3-headed monster of a running game. Plus the Cowboys secondary can play man against the speedy Eagles receivers while the Ware, Spencer and Ratliff provide the pressure. A luxury not many teams have. Cowboys win 28-13.

In the other NFC matchup the Packers (who smoked the undermanned Cards last week) stay in Arizona and play the defensing NFC champion Cardinals. I think this matchup will be much closer than the drubbing the Packers placed on the Cards a week ago. Whisenhunt played it very close to the vest and didn't want to reveal any big plays a week early. The Cards have some injury issues, but I think they will blitz more and keep this game close. The sublime Aaron Rodgers should be able to keep the Pack in the game, but I think their lack of big game experience will hurt. Cardinals 27, Packers 24.

Over in the AFC there are two intriguing matchups. The Jets replay the Bengals. This time in Cincinnati. Nothing I saw in the first half (when the Bengals played all their starters) led me to believe the Bengals have a chance to beat the Jets. The Jets simply looked faster and more aggressive on both sides of the ball. Although not as big a blowout as last week, I have the Jets winning 21-10.

The last game on the slate features the Ravens coming to New England to face the Patriots. The Pats suffered a huge loss last week when they lost super-slot receiver Wes Welker for the season (and potentially next season as well). Welker is great at being Brady's security blanket. With that said, the once great Ravens defense is a little overrated. They've struggled all season against big name QB's and that won't change here. The Pats defense on the other hand has played better the last month of the season. They still don't get enough pressure on the opposing QB, but they do play the run well. That will help against the run heavy Ravens. Pats in a squeeker 24-21.

Observations and Predictions... Week 17 (Happy New Year edition)

The start of a new year brings the end to a lot of teams seasons. That doesn't mean that week 17 has no drama, just that a lot of the games on the slate are being played for bragging rights. The AFC has 2 playoff spots up for grabs. The Jets and Ravens control their own destiny. If they win they're in. Texans, Broncos and Steelers need to win and get some help to get in. In the NFC, all the playoff positions are occupied. There is still some jockeying for position, but for the most part all is set.

Last week I went a very mediocre 9-7. Here are my week 17 picks. Colts over the Bills. Even with some starters resting, they should take care of the bumbling Bills. Browns over the Jags. I think the Browns play over the last month has saved Mangini's job. Niners beat the Rams. Steelers over the Dolphins. Vikings beat the reeling Giants. Falcons over the Bucs. Panthers over the Saints. Texans beat the resting Pats. Bears beat the struggling Lions. Ravens over the improved Raiders. Cardinals beat the Packers in a potential playoff preview. Chargers keep the streak alive over the hapless Redskins. Titans big over Seattle. I expect Chris Johnson to break 2,000, but not best Eric Dickerson. Cowboys in a close one over the Eagles. Broncos (without some big guns) beat the Chiefs. Jets over the resting Bengals.

There you have it. Its been a great regular season, I can't wait for the post-season.

Observations and Predictions... Week 16 (christmas edition)

Merry Christmas to every one out there. I wouldn't typically touch a computer on Christmas, but I had to sign on to make my pick for the game tonight.

Last week I was 10 and 6. Not a bad tally. I think the Titans (at home) behind Chris Johnson beat the surging Chargers. The Titans can go on a run and make some noise in the playoffs. The Chargers are as good as their recent winning streak, but I think their lack of running game will come back to bite them in this game.

The rest of the week should look like this: Falcons over the Bills. Although they're playing only for pride a strong finish bodes well for Atlanta next season. Bengals over the Chiefs. Expect a big day from Cedric Benson. The Raiders (who've looked much better of late) over the Browns (who've looked better of late as well). Packers huge over the Seahawks. Steelers over the Ravens. A late season push by the defending champs is on. Dolphins over the Texans. Pats at home in the cold and rain over the suny Jags. Saints big over Bucs. Giants over Panthers. Niners over the Lions. Cardinals beat the Rams. Colts will have to rely on the ground game, but they'll beat the Jets in a close low scoring game. Eagles over the Broncos in a shoot-out. Cowboys big over Washington. Vikings get back to their winning ways against the Bear.